NFL Week 4
Oct 03, 2026
I have previewed six NFL games for Week 4 of the still new season and you can see the first two below, the Browns beat the Steelers 27-24 on Thursday night and the Colts play the Commanders in the early Sunday game which is being played in London at the Tottenham Stadium.
NFL is one of our most profitable and popular sports and has been for 20+ years, it is not our biggest by any means, as there are so few fixtures across a 17 week regular season, that accolade goes,of course, to the Premier League, closely followed by the Bundesliga, but it is great to have all three in tandem and the NFL is a sporting lifesaver during the international break, especially for those of us not the biggest fans of the UEFA Nations League!
NFL : Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
All divisional games have a history and many are close regardless of how either team has played up to that point, but the rivalries in the AFC North always seem just a little more fiery and with all four teams tied on 2-1 currently and the Steelers coming off a 30-27 win over the Bengals another divisional rival and the Browns having ground out back to back wins, this should be intense. Cleveland were 5-12 last season, but won their last two, so are actually 4-1 across their last five and those two wins at the end of 2015 were against the Steelers and Bengals. The Browns route to victory seems pretty straightforward, if not exactly easy, they have won six in a row when keeping opponents to 20 points or less and the Steelers have scored 13 or fewer in 3 of their last 4.
The Browns have a new head coach in 60 yo Todd Monken, which is bucking a lot of trends, in that he is not "young" and this is a first appointment in the NFL in the main role, or anywhere for 11 years ( he was a head coach in college for two years). However, he knows the AFC North very well and was the offensive coordinator for the Browns in 2019 and for the Ravens in each of the last three seasons (33-18 regular season record). He should be able to help the Browns offensively and under him QB's in the NFL have ranked 4-8-2-13-2-1-2 for passing yards per attempt. Cleveland lost superstar DE Myles Garrett this off season in a rebuild that was understandable, but defensively they were good and were elite against the pass and with two good looking drafts back to back, we have a work in progress but with plenty to develop and only improvement likely and at 2-1 we have already begun to see that. In the two games against the Steelers and veteran QB Aaron Rodgers last season, that passing defense gave up 235 yards and 2 TD's in the first (but had just travelled to London and back), so I am less bothered about that, in the second they held him to 168 yards and no TD's and had a good read on him.
In seven trips to Cleveland, Pittsburgh have scored 20+ points just once and won, losing the other six.
2.5 units Cleveland Browns to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers Money Line @ 2.35 Pinnacle /Vegas line.
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders ....... in London
The Colts won for the first time in ten games last week and also got the Houston Texans monkey off their backs , so will fly to London in good heart. However, I am not prepared to fully trust them just yet and the Texans were beat up and have just got too used to losing early season games and making things very difficult for themselves.
The Commanders are also on 1-2 for the season, they lost to the Eagles (narrowly) and the Cowboys to start their campaign, but scored 20+ points in each and they were very unfortunate in the second to lose starting and talented QB Jayden Daniels. Back up QB is Marcus Mariota, who stepped in and he has thrown 4 TD passes without an INT and led them to a 33-31 win over the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who were on a run of 21-3 and who posted elite numbers even for a SB winner last season, as we discussed multiple times.
The Colts have not made an interception so far and have a -5 turnover differential, Washington are +2 and are also 8th in the NFL for time of possession and we are only two seasons removed from them as a 12 win team, injuries were arguably the worst (5th worst officially but many were to premium/key players) in the NFL last season, so we can cut them some slack for how that played out.
The Commanders changed both coordinators this season, it is just turned 31yo offensive play caller, David Blough, I find most interesting for now. He spent most of his career as a backup QB and was still on the roster of the Lions in 2023 and has spent the last two seasons working with Daniels and Mariota as the QB coach and you suspect he will have given plenty of attention to the backup, having been in that position for so long himself and it showed last week. Anyway, his receivers were in decent form and whether it is Mariota or Daniels, who has returned to limited practice this week, they have a gunslinger's chance and an elite WR coming back to the top of his game. Terry McLaurin had 13 TD catches in 2024, but spent much of last season injured. Last week he had his best game in 10 months and when he puts up 69 yards or more, Washington are 11-3 (two losses were by a single point) and average 32.2 points pg. If you said to me Colts marginal favourites , I would not overly disagree, but 1.50 feels too short.
3 units Washington Commanders +3 points @ 2.26 Pinnacle/Vegas Line, this would have won 13/14 times if McLaurin puts up 69+ points and the Colts have already given up 83-150 yards to four individual receivers in their first three starts.
Good luck!
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