Early kick off in Athens ......
Nov 04, 2026
UEFA Champions League:
Ahead of the last round I wrote ....
It is , as you were, in the Champions League and the goals have flowed over the first two rounds, with 22 of the 36 games (61.11%) producing 4+ and 17 (47.22%) seeing 5 or more goals. Those numbers are huge, are nothing new and why the world watches these fixtures. To give them some context, the new Premier League season is running at a respective 35.7% and 20%.
Looking at this week's Champions League games it is difficult to see any real drop off in goals and we can expect to continue to be royally entertained and that is good for everybody and especially the sport when it is dealing with the Manchester City saga and Infantinogate.
R3 averaged 4.11 goals with 12 of 18 games producing 4+ goals and 8 with 5+ and again, no real reason to see much of a drop off this midweek.
They did come in a little lower yesterday, but several of the teams who scored nil on Tuesday, put up some big offensive numbers, so it does feel more like a blip than change in trend.
AEK Athens - Real Madrid
AEK have played nine Champions League games since 2006, they lost eight of those, but did kindly score at the Etihad on Matchday 3 when my notes included .....
AEK are making their first CL appearance in eight years and not much to strike fear into City hearts with a 1-0 defeat of LASK in Athens and a 3-1 loss to Donetsk at Stamford Bridge. Having said that, they led in the latter, created 5 BC's and had a huge number of supporters at the game, as they will this evening. They also hit the woodwork before they scored with a golden opportunity and showed some ability, were very quick in transition and were denied by two huge saves at 1-1, but then gifted Shahktar the lead and offered little from that point. AEK were allowed to cancel their league game at the weekend and have been in the UK for a week or more.
I think that the CL has been a big distraction to them domestically and they come into this fixture having lost back to back derby games in league and cup. It is no surprise really, as they can be few games bigger in world football than hosting Real Madrid in the Champions League. The hosts should need no urging to get "up" for this game, facing the biggest club in the world for the first time in 24 years. We can almost always expect goals and thrills when Real play and they have won and conceded in all three CL games so far, including a 4-1 home defeat of Leipzig on Matchday 3 and a 4-3 win at Roma from 3-1 down late in the contest and,even with Jose Mourinho at the helm, nothing much changes when they play! It has been a great month for Real, they have closed the gap at the top of La Liga on Barcelona with a win in the Catalan capital and put themselves into a position where they could almost guarantee a top 8 place in the CL before they travel to London to play Arsenal pre Christmas, when Jose will definitely be up to his old tricks and trying to wind up Arteta. They might rest a couple of players this evening but will want the points and more of the same is on the cards... 1-2/2-3.
2.5 units Real Madrid to win and both teams to score @ 2.18 asian line.
Good luck!
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