Friday/Saturday English football.....
Sep 19, 2026
Six EPL ( sent yesterday to subscribers) and EFL games ( in today's newsletter) covered across the first two days of the weekend. The first three have seen Brentford win 3-0, Cardiff City 3-1 and Aston Villa 3-2 and provide winners at odds of 1.96/ 2.35/ 2.78/3.01 and secure a 5+ point profit even if the remaining three games all come up short.
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Premier League 26/27:
| 2026/27 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 12 | WWWW | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2 | Manchester City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 12 | WWWW | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | Leeds United | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 | WXXW | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | Hull City | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 | XOWW | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 5 | Brighton & HA | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 | WXLW | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | ||
| 6 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 | XLWW | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | ||
| 7 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 | XXXW | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | ||
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 | OWXX | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 9 | Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 | OXXW | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | WLLW | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | ||
| 11 | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 5 | WOXL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | ||
| 12 | Newcastle United | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 | LXWX | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 13 | Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 4 | LXWL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | ||
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | LXWL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| 15 | Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | XXXL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 | LWLL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 | OOLL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | ||
| 18 | Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 | OLLL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | LOLL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | ||
| 20 | Coventry City | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 | LLLL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | ||
Brentford- Chelsea
These two have plenty of goals in them and the GF column doesn't quite tell the full story, but Chelsea are nowhere near as good defensively and just at the moment, Brentford also have issues in central defence. They will doubtless have a pairing of Ajer and Schuster and nothing wrong with that per se, but back up options are limited and the latter, who has unlimited ability and is already decent, is still learning about the EPL and the duo have not had much time in tandem. The visitors have not played since Saturday, when they drew 2-2 at home to Hull City, the Bees were at Reading in midweek where they won 2-1 but missed about five BC's in the final 20-25 minutes and had a "good" goal disallowed for a reason only known to the referee and which will have to remain one of life's great mysteries! They rotated of course and three who will start today did not feature at all and another trio played just a few minutes against the Royals , but the very quick turnaround still hampers preparation. However, Chelsea have conceded 2+ goals in six straight starts against EPL opposition and in 2 of 3 visits to the Gtech and I expect those trends to continue.
2.25 units Brentford to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 1.96 asian line.
Everton - Ipswich Town
I did suggest that Ipswich would be the best of the three promoted teams in my preseason notes and despite Hull City having two more points in the bag ATM, I still believe that Town are the stronger and more of an EPL side. They won 3-2 at Crystal Palace last weekend and nothing wrong with a 2-4 home defeat to Arsenal in midweek in the EFL Cup, they scored the last two goals in that and really did not need to progress, so a positive all round IMO. Everton are unbeaten in league and cup and did progress in the latter, but on Wednesday, so played a day later.
Ahead of Ipswich's first away game at Manchester United I noted ...
they opened with a win at Portman Road over Sunderland where they created chances from wide and in transition, with new South American signings Julio Enciso and Emersson thrilling with pace and willingness to take players on. Town showed great ability from out wide and, crosses from the flanks and set pieces were United's outdoing at Hull. The pressure is off the Tractor Boys now that they have won ( they would have snatched your hand off for three points from their first two games) and are freerolling at OT. The visitors followed up in midweek with a 3-1 win over Leicester City in the EFL Cup and have now scored 12 in four starts (two friendlies against strong opposition).
They lost 5-2 but have now scored 19 in 8 games and they have 7 or 8 almost interchangeable options for four offensive places and decent quality amongst that octet too and that is very rare in a promoted side. Everton are decent, but Town can trouble them and good value with .....
2.25 units both teams to score and "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.17 asian line.
Nottingham Forest- Coventry City
I touched upon Forest's 2-1 win at Aston Villa last weekend when Coventry hosted the Villans on Wednesday night. The Tricky Trees could have scored 4-5 second half goals at Villa Park and it was hard not to be impressed and head coach Oliver Glasner was doing a good impersonation of a cheshire cat and struggling to keep a smile off his face in post match interview. Ahead of that my notes included .....
I expect Forest to put up much stronger opposition, they have had a less disruptive week than Villa, were very good at Liverpool in their only away start to date and Oliver Glasner has had Unai Emery's number and has been ringing it non stop, as his teams are 5-2-0 with a 19-4 goal difference against the home head coach, scoring 2+ goals in six, including all three trips to Villa Park. I am a little torn between Forest off level ball and to score twice, but the latter is 60 clicks bigger, the visitors have already scored twice at Anfield and Glasner is looking to do so with his teams for the 4th straight time at VP.
TBH, I wish that Forest were on the road, as they have found goals hard to come by at the City Ground, but this is as easy as it comes (if anything is ever "easy" in the EPL), Glasner is close to his preferred line up now and he has had a further free midweek to fine tune his team.
2 units Nottingham Forest -1 ball @ 2.08 asian line.
Tottenham Hotspur- Aston Villa
Spurs are still looking for their first EPL goal of the season, but did score in the cup at Anfield in midweek, albeit in a 2-1 defeat ahead of which I noted ....
Tottenham played in the early evening game on Saturday and have to travel, so even though they did not play last midweek, the quick turnaround is almost as tough on them and the pressure is great as they are still goalless after four EPL games and how can they have spent so much money and pose so little goal threat? Head coach RDZ is stubborn, I could have told Spurs that and still will not play Richarlison, in addition, Porro and Tonali are absent and surely their priority is their home game with Aston Villa at the weekend and they dare not go into the international break winless or possibly even scoreless in five league games, it that happens it will not matter what the result is tonight. It is 15 years since Spurs won at Anfield, they have scored in 9 of the last 10, losing 7 and desperately need a goal.
In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king and Villa at least have one EPL goal to their name and kindly won 3-1 at Coventry City on Wednesday and have actually scored six in their last two away starts (EFL Cup and Champions League). Also, their three big summer signings Manzambi, Jackson and Mbaye all got more game time in midweek and we must be close to seeing the trio start together now. I am not quite as in love with Unai Emery as many others are, but I do think he is a much better head coach than RDZ and Tottenham are 1-5-7 in their last 12 EPL home games with a 12-24 goal difference and they have won just 5/35 as hosts in the league and even money quotes are useless to me and feel wrong.
2.5 units Aston Villa level ball @ 2.78 or "over" 1.5 goals @ 3.01 both feel significantly overpriced and are a coin flip, either is good, but are big enough that stakes could even be split (1.25 on each), which I think I will go with.
Championship:
| 2026/27 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | West Ham United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 14 | WWWW | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | ||
| 2 | Swansea City | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 | WLOW | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | ||
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 | XWWX | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||
| 4 | WBA | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 14 | XWWX | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | ||
| 5 | QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 | XOLW | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 | OOLX | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | ||
| 7 | Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 | WXLW | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | ||
| 8 | Lincoln City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 11 | WWXO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 9 | Southampton1 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 10 | WWXX | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 10 | Birmingham City | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 | WLXX | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | ||
| 11 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 10 | XLWL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | ||
| 12 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 10 | WXWW | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | ||
| 13 | Bristol City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 | LLWW | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | ||
| 14 | Norwich City | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 9 | LWWL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | ||
| 15 | Sheffield United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 | LWLW | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | ||
| 16 | Blackburn Rovers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 8 | WLLO | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 | LWLL | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | ||
| 18 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 | OWLL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | ||
| 19 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | LXOW | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | ||
| 20 | Bolton Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 | WLLL | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | ||
| 21 | Cardiff City | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | LXLL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | ||
| 22 | Derby County | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | LLLW | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||
| 23 | 1 | Preston North End | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | LLWL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| 24 | 1 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 | LXLX | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |
| 1 | Southampton (-4) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Wrexham - Southampton
Southampton are second top scorers behind only West Ham and excluding their four point deduction they would be level on points with the league leaders. Without Spygate, and I have had my say on that, they would be playing EPL football this season and instead of feeling sorry for themselves, they have actually strengthened what was already a very strong second tier side who ended last season on fire, including winning at champions Coventry City and 5-1 at 7th placed Wrexham in the closing weeks, where they return this weekend.
The Red Dragons have already conceded 11 goals and were humiliated last time out at West Ham and have had to live with that shame for 8 long days. We can usually expect a reaction after such a battering, but Southampton are the last team you would want to face to try and get it. Having "bigged up" the game against the Hammers all week in build up, Wrexham head coach Phil Parkinson has not mentioned the debacle subsequently on the club website and I do not like that, own it, if you are embarrassed, come out and say that. After five years of relentless success, Parkinson is under real pressure now and looked short of ideas, bowed by the result post match and made some ill timed comments which supporters were not happy with and has not taken the opportunity to try and mend those bridges this week.
2.25 units Southampton -0.25 ball @ 2.15 asian line.
Cardiff City- Charlton Athletic
The visitors started the season well, but are now three games without a goal and have struggled on the road since returning to the second tier, with 5 wins in 26 starts, averaging 0.92 goals scored.
Cardiff are winless following promotion last season, but they come out top for xGF, 1.14 goals per game better than they have actually achieved and the same 1.14 goals superior to Athletic who come out second worst in the division on all metrics.
City's last home game was a 1-1 draw with Stoke, but they won xg 3.6-1.1, BC's 6-2 and were denied by six saves and the woodwork three times and one visiting supporter said that he thought "we were playing Manchester and not Cardiff City!" Stoke boosted the formline with a 2-1 win at Watford (unbeaten in three home games) in their only subsequent start.
There is a good chance that City will go on a run once they get that breakthrough win and hopefully that starts today.
2 units Cardiff City -1 ball @ 2.35 asian line.
Good luck!
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