Ligue 1: Stade Rennais- Lille OSC.....  written March 12th

 

Lille are struggling. They have lost their way big time domestically in 2026, winning only 2 of 10 starts, scoring just 5 goals and losing all five games versus top 8 teams (conceding 12  goals) and they fave another this weekend. First of those losses to start the New Year was 2-0 at home to Rennes who finished 12th last season, but who got an encouraging write up from me in preseason.....

 

First season in 11 that Rennes did not finish in the top 10 and within that they can boast three top 4 finishes in the last six campaigns. Things looked worse for a while, as 24 of their 41 points came in the second half of last season, but xP gave them 48 which matches those SH numbers and is 9th place level, so overall, maybe they were not so far off their usual pace as the table suggests. Their budget was 6th highest and it is one of the few in cash strapped Ligue 1 that appears to have been increased this season, seemingly by 16-17%, it is hard to be precise until full numbers have been released. Having said that, they have sold a few players (replaced them too) and at least another might depart for good money, possibly to the EPL. But hard to see any downside and I would be a little amazed were they not to finish top 8 and head coach Habib Beye who only joined at the end of the January window will have had his first off season with the squad. 

 

I suggested they offered value at 23.0 to finish top 3 as indeed it did/does if anyone was lucky/shrewd enough to have bet that.

 

They also lost their way in January but have won their last four by a combined 11-1 which started with a 3-1 win over PSG and includes clean sheets in their last three. I am not sure they are Champions League level, but they play Metz (18th), Brest (9), Angers (11) and Nantes (17) in their next five starts and a great opportunity to kick on, doubly so if they beat Lille who have a major distraction. The visitors host Aston Villa in the Europa League tonight and that will take priority and there will be very little time to prepare for Rennes, most of which will be spent making the difficult (however you travel) 564km journey to Brittany. It is a five hour drive ( 3.5 if my wife is behind the wheel!).

 

 

Good luck!