I spent so much time over the summer on my Premier League notes and was very pleased with the resulting write ups on all 20 teams, which were sent to subscribers in six parts and I feel that we have a very good handle on teams in what is set to be a season of turmoil, with several big name sides seemingly in transition. I sent out my betting suggestions for Matchday 1 last Thursday and looked at 7 games and the first six (one is being played this evening) all made a profit, three inside an hour with the bets on Brighton, Brentford and Everton all winners after a respective 19, 34 and 54 minutes! They are reproduced below and are supposed to be read in tandem with the outright previews.

 

This morning I sent subscribers the first of a two part Bundesliga 2026/27 season preview, the second will be included in the Wednesday newsletter and these will run to 6-7,000 words total and last season contained just two outright suggestions, both of which won at odds of 2.75 and 5.0 and ranked VERY strong.

 

 

 

Matchday 1 in the Premier League and all 20 teams will be full of hope and excitement and probably a little trepidation. Nothing will be decided today, but no one wants to lose their opener, however, history (average over last five seasons) dictates that eight teams will.

 

My thoughts for this weekend are based very largely around my preseason notes which you all got to see at least once and they ran to over 13,500 words so I am not going to reproduce them again. If you need to reference any of them, they were all sent in a round up on August 12th.

 

 

Still not much business done at Palace, they have signed a couple of very young players who are unlikely to be EPL ready (like their new head coach?) and swapped (I thought that was a thing of the past) Brennan Johnson for Dwight McNeil with .....Everton. I understand that they might not face off as Mcneil is carrying a knock. The new Palace boss is trying to implement some changes and a much higher press than under Glasner and it has caused issues in preseason and they lost 3-0 to Freiburg last weekend ( everyone else was beating up on Bundesliga teams) and the German side might have score five as they were through on goal multiple times, every time they beat that (too high) press. They could also have some issues with pace in the middle and Lacroix (sold) was their fastest CB. Everton have taken 10 points from the Eagles in the last two seasons, scoring 2+ goals in all four starts, are far more settled and I expect those trends to continue.

 

2.25 units Everton to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.17 asian line OR -0.5 ball @ 2.21 as best alternative.

 

 

Huge game for Town and I have spoken previously about how important an early win is for a promoted side and this feels like a golden opportunity, with the visitors vulnerable and they have not added to a squad who will have to play a lot more games this season. That is not a concern today I accept, but Sunderland also rode their luck last season and do not have the aura yet of a big club and Town have faced them recently and did the double the last time the two clubs were in the same division. Visiting head coach Regis Le Bris is not as secure as you might think and his position was under scrutiny late last season and remains so.

 

2 units Ipswich Town -0.25 ball @ 2.39 asian line.

 

 

Brentford have a very settled team and they are going to have to leave 2-3 players out of the squad entirely today who might have started the season before last. They beat a poor Eintracht Frankfurt side 7-0 last week and pretty much "declared" ,to use cricket terminology, after 70 minutes. New club record signing Mamadou Sangare looks the real deal already and could take the EPL by storm and Thiago/Schade/Outtara looked fit and more in sync that last season where they combined for 37 goals and 13 assists.

 

Tottenham have spent a LOT of money (300m€+ on transfers and signing on fees), but it appears they could be without as many as 10 players today (injury/WC/ not willing to risk), their only RB returned to training 7 days ago and supporters are already moaning that they "do not have a striker". They could also have as many as five debutants which is a lot to integrate into an EPL game. 

 

There are a lot of rumours around about Spurs signing Gakpo/Savinho/Marmoush possibly all three, that would take them to a record ever spend and I am not sure I believe that or that City would sell both players today, even if it happened, deals have to be done and players integrated and this game is on Saturday. But I thought I should mention it.

 

2.25 units Brentford to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.12 asian line.

 

 

I expect both teams to regress a little this season, but Brighton maybe more once they start to play Thursday/Sunday. Villa are going to miss Morgan Rogers (missed two EPl games in two seasons) and Youri Tilemans (1-2-5 in last 8 games he sat out) in midfield. They have replaced them with the future in mind, but both of the two big signings have picked up knocks and might miss a couple of weeks. Lucas Digne has also been sold (best LB they have had in 20 years according to a supporter I know) and transfer speculation around best defender Konsa (edit: now left for Arsenal) and striker Ollie Watkins remains and this is a side in transition and switching (possibly) to a more direct style, whilst playing CL football. Add in injuries to Onana (long term) and Madjo and possible concussion protocol for Garnacho and I am not sure where it leaves Villa right now. The visitors were also awful at the beginning of last season (one win and four goals in first six starts and even that doesn't tell the full story). Villa do have a good record against Brighton, but did concede three goals here last season ( 3-4), so whilst I prefer the home to away win, maybe better value with ....

 

2.5 units Brighton to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 1.95 asian line.

 

I have some further news about Villa and their policy for this season, but maybe I will save that for next week.

 

Manchester City - Bournemouth

 

 

 

 

This should be fun!

 

No Eddie Howe, Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes or Anthony Gordon for United. Joelinton is injured.They could have four 20yo's making their debuts.

 

The Reds will be without Robertson, Konate, Mo Salah and have a talented new head coach who knows the EPL well, but who is unused to the spotlight and big club environment. They also cannot defend!

 

United will face former striker Alexander Isak for the first time since he went on strike and forced the biggest transfer in British football 12 months ago. He spent most of the interim period injured. I hope he has the ear plugs in as surely he will get a very torrid welcome, the banners at SJP went from "Alexander the Great" to "Isak is a rat" in a matter of days and nothing about what became a very sordid affair has been forgotten.

 

This is traditionally a high scoring fixture and the meeting at Anfield in 1995-96 (4-3) is often cited as the best ever EPL game and if you watched it, even 30 years later, you will remember it, unless you confuse it with the game at Anfield the following season which also finished 4-3 and then 4-2 the next year! The last two h2h games at SJP have finished 2-3/3-3 and Liverpool have scored 3+ goals in 9 of the last 17 meetings.

 

 

 

 

I have laid my cards on the table with these two clubs who were only separated by goal difference last season, but Chelsea were 15+ points ahead in the two previous campaigns and I expect that to at least be the gap this season and more normal service to be resumed. Xabi Alonso will know the new Fulham head coach and major signings as well as anyone in the EPL given their Real Madrid connections where he started last season as boss and whilst he would never say as much, I suspect that Alonso was a little embarrassed that he was replaced by Arbeloa and that he would love to show he was still "the man"... I know I would! Fulham have found goals hard to come by in preseason, that is my biggest concern about them until I see otherwise.

 

2.5 units Chelsea -1 ball @ 2.71 asian line.

 

Good luck!