No surprise (to us!) that goals are on the rise in Brazilian football this month ....
Aug 17, 2025
On August 2nd I wrote the following in my daily email to subscribers .....
Serie A is a low scoring league and we normally expect a shade under 2.45 goals on average, but it is currently running at 2.25 and that can be partly explained I feel by the stop/start nature of play this year due to the international breaks and FIFA Club World Cup. We should see an increase now and games will have to produce at the rate of 2.58 , a third of a goal increase, to come in at circa 2.44. Leagues do tend to revert to the mean , so it is not wrong for us to expect an upturn. As I type on Friday morning, nine of this weekend's ten games are priced at odds of 2.24- 2.58 to go "over" 2.5 goals and the same nine offer 1.95+ (up to 2.29 ) for both teams to score and I am sure that there is some value in there somewhere.
There have been 25 games played subsequently 72% have seen both teams score, 64% have produced 3+ goals and the 25 averaged 2.92 goals. Notes like that are meant as a starting point for analysis and we have done better than that with a little bit of additional research and we have bet 7 of them, with six winning @ odds of between 1.97 and 2.56, for a 85.71% strike rate and ROI of 88.94%.
That is why (and there are many reasons) the clubgowi newsletter is an invaluable tool for sports bettors and if you are quick, there are still five low, low priced subscriptions still available.
Good luck!
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