Playoff football............
May 06, 2025
Championship Playoffs:
| 2024/25 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Leeds United | 46 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 95 | 30 | +65 | 100 | WWWW | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 12 | 23 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 34 | 18 | ||
| 2 | Burnley | 46 | 28 | 16 | 2 | 69 | 16 | +53 | 100 | WWWW | 23 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 35 | 8 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 34 | 8 | ||
| 3 | Sheffield United1 | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 36 | +27 | 90 | XWLW | 23 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 17 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 19 | ||
| 4 | Sunderland | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 58 | 44 | +14 | 76 | LLLL | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 18 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 26 | ||
| 5 | Coventry City | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 58 | +6 | 69 | WLLW | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 24 | 34 | ||
| 6 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 59 | 55 | +4 | 68 | XLLW | 23 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 36 | 20 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 35 | ||
| 7 | Blackburn Rovers | 46 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 66 | XWWW | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 23 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 25 | ||
How they got here!
The first thing to note is that Bristol City and Coventry City both edged in and confirmed their place in the top 6 on the final day and were only a respective 5 and 4 points ahead of the team who finished 10th. Sheffield United collected a massive 90 points ,92 without their two point deduction and Bristol City were 24 adrift of them and the same 24 ahead of basement club Plymouth Argyle! Sunderland were also booked for 4th place for months, they have been going through the motions for many weeks and have taken just one point from their last six games, scoring just once in the process and losing their last five . How easy it will be for them to switch the "on button" is open to debate, but I suspect that "not very" is the answer! Both they and especially United were in the automatic promotion discussion for much of the campaign, the two City's never were and it was all about finishing 5th or 6th for them and maybe, in that regard, they come into the playoffs happiest.
Schedule:
Thursday May 8: Bristol City- Sheffield United
Friday May 9: Coventry City- Sunderland
Monday May 12: Sheffield United- Bristol City
Tuesday May 13: Sunderland-Coventry City
Last 19 seasons: The third placed team has won nine times , 4th on five occasions, 5th has prevailed four times, the team finishing in sixth just once and not for the last 14 seasons. Bristol City are in the "jinx" position.
In terms of h2h round robin (games between the four teams this season): Sheffield United 11 points (3-2-1), Coventry 9 points (2-3-1), Bristol City 6 points (1-3-2) and Sunderland 5 points (1-2-3). Sunderland and Bristol City also only averaged 1 goal per game, Coventry and United 1.67 and Sunderland also lost all three away games and conceded the most goals.
Points picked up over the second half of the season : Sheffield United 44 points (-4) ,Coventry City 42 (+15), Bristol City 38 (+8) and Sunderland 32 (-12) . Figures in parenthesis are the difference between the second 23 and first 23 games. United and Coventry have the edge and whilst there was some drop off/levelling from the Blades, it was from a very high level..........48 points at half way is automatic promotion level and then some and they came in at roughly those numbers through each set of 23 games.
Points collected over the last 10 games: Sheffield United 16, Bristol City 15, Coventry City 13 and Sunderland 8.
Gulf in class and two away games left to play!
There looks to be a gulf in class between Sheffield United and the other clubs, that is backed up by all the numbers and especially the 14-22 point 46 game gap and goal difference edge. In terms of finishing position alone, the results of the last 19 years suggest that there is a 47.37 % chance of the third placed team winning, which makes them a circa 2.11 chance. Also, the two City's have 10 away wins between them, United have 13 which is an enormous number for a team not gaining automatic promotion and remember, two, of hopefully three playoff games, are played "away" from home.
Coventry head coach Frank Lampard is the only man at the helm with Championship playoff experience as Chris Wilder (United) teams have been promoted automatically. Lampard took Derby County to the Wembley final in 2018-19 in his first managerial job. I think that counts for quite a bit and City also have plenty of momentum , they scored five goals in the two games with Sunderland (4 points) whom they face in the semi-finals. Coventry also made the playoff final in 22/23 when they finished the season in 5th also and they were a penalty shoot out away from the promised land of the EPL and, again, that experience is invaluable.
Bristol City have made a quantum step forward to finish top 6 and use that as a springboard in the future, but they are in that jinx 6th position and look a long way off United. They served us well with those top half of the table and top 6 suggestions (see next post), but did struggle a little with pressure over the final three games and it feels like they have done enough for 24/25.Sunderland have simply lost their way and I do not favour them to be able to go again.
Sheffield United look the most likely winner and it would be justice if they sealed the deal, as 92 points would have given them an automatic spot in 6 of the last 7 seasons and a title in one. I think that odds of 2.75/2.80 are more than reasonable and I made them a 2.50 chance.
First leg games:
With such a huge prize at stake these first games tend to be close , very tense affairs and many teams make avoiding defeat in the opener a priority and of course, we do have the "better" team on the road. That is borne out by how few semi final first leg home winners there are, only 10 in those last 19 seasons, which is 38 games, a miserly 26.32%, but of real interest is the fact that 26 (68.42 %) were level after 45 minutes and this is something and a bet that has served us very well.
I put up three betting suggestions for subscribers, two at high stakes.
Good luck!
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