Union on the rise, Inter need to bounce back....
Aug 19, 2026
MLS:Philadelphia Union - Inter Miami
Union continued their upturn with a 3-2 win at NYCFC on Sunday......
I feel tied to Union now after highlighting them as big potential improvers, before the first of three straight wins, ahead of the most recent, my notes read a lot like this ....
Union hosted the Seattle Sounders last weekend ....
I touched upon the Sounders' horror show at home to Portland Timbers in midweek and they then lost 3-1 to an Austin FC side who were in poor form, winless in four, conceding 12 goals and now, Seattle have to travel cross country to face last year's Supporters Shield winners the Philadelphia Union. The hosts have been struggling themselves, but I did mention they were so much better than that and maybe the break served them well as they beat NYRB 3-1 and were very worthy winners. This feels like a golden opportunity for Philly to build on that and start to close in on those playoff spots .
Union are on a roll now and at long last starting to match performance levels. They only won 1-0, but Seattle are too good a franchise to be bad for too long. However, Philly were the better team and never really looked in trouble and were denied what looked like a good goal to most viewers early in the second half, which would have put them two up and then I suspect they would have scored 3 or 4. United are on one of those long extended away runs we seem to get more often in MLS than any other league. They are seven games without a win and this is their 7th straight road game, their fourth since the WC break. They are also seven (Three 7's clash) trips to Philly without a win, having conceded 11 in the last four of those , including a 3-0 defeat last season.
They made hard work of beating Atlanta 3-2, but the stats showcase that it was fully justified .... xG 2.81-0.52, BC's 4-1, attempts 30-4 (!), ITB 25-2 (1) and TIPA's 64-4 (!!!), the latter being the largest advantage in that category I can recall seeing! Now they make the short trip to a main rival who are unbeaten in three, but who have not kept a clean sheet in six and Union have won three times in four visits , scoring 10 goals and I like the away win and for the visitor to score twice.
City are 10 points better off, but xP suggests that Union are the stronger by 15, which gives us a 25 point "expected" swing and long time readers know that 20 is the point at which big value is suggested.
They came from two down to record the win and posted some sensational second half numbers ( 2.0-0.3 xG and 3-0 BC's). Now they host Inter Miami and their array of superstars who will be hungry to bounce back after a 4-1 defeat away to Nashville last weekend. However, they did create 2.25 xGF, 5 BC's and were denied by 4 saves and the woodwork three times, so will feel hard done by at the margin of the deefat. Goals are surely on the agenda today and for both teams. Inter won the reverse fixture 6-4 in April and the two teams shared six goals here in Philly last season, so nothing to sway us from that thinking with those results.
"over" 4 goals @ 2.54 asian line.
Good luck!
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