What's happening in the Bundesliga .....

Sep 30, 2026

Bundesliga 2026/27 update:

2026/27			Overall									Home						Away
2026/27			P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12	WWWW	2	2	0	0	5	0	2	2	0	0	4	2
	2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10	WWOW	2	2	0	0	12	1	2	1	1	0	2	1
	3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10	XWWW	2	2	0	0	9	1	2	1	1	0	3	2
	4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7	LXWW	2	1	1	0	5	2	2	1	0	1	6	4
	5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7	WXWL	2	2	0	0	6	0	2	0	1	1	4	5
	6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7	WLWO	2	0	1	1	1	3	2	2	0	0	9	3
	7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7	OLWW	2	1	0	1	4	4	2	1	1	0	4	3
	8	SV Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	+0	7	WXWL	2	2	0	0	6	3	2	0	1	1	2	5
	9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6	LWLW	2	2	0	0	8	0	2	0	0	2	1	5
	10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5	XWLX	2	0	1	1	3	6	2	1	1	0	6	4
	11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5	OWOL	2	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	3	4
	12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4	WLLO	2	1	0	1	3	2	2	0	1	1	0	3
	13	1.FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4	LXLW	2	1	1	0	4	3	2	0	0	2	2	6
	14	TSG Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3	LWLL	2	1	0	1	4	4	2	0	0	2	3	6
	15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3	LLWL	2	1	0	1	4	2	2	0	0	2	2	7
	16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3	WLLL	2	1	0	1	2	6	2	0	0	2	0	7
	17	1.FC Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1	LLLX	2	0	1	1	4	6	2	0	0	2	0	11
	18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0	LLLL	2	0	0	2	6	8	2	0	0	2	0	8

Our four preseason outright bets look in decent shape and would be even better if we could stop the league today !

1 unit Freiburg to finish top 4 @ 10.0 general quote.

4 units Freiburg to finish top 6 @ 4.0 general quote.

2 units Mainz to finish top 6 @ 5.0 general quote.

3 units Borussia Dortmund without Bayern Munich @ 2.50 general quote.

Freiburg now trade at a respective 4.50 and 1.85 for top 4 and 6

Mainz are 4.20 to finish top 6

Dortmund are a top quote of 1.91 without Bayern.

Four games is not much, but what stands out so far? The goals have flowed in what is already a very high scoring league and 3.8 per game, is 0.57 up on last season. Newly promoted Schalke and Paderborn have bucked that trend with only 1.75 and 2.0 goals per game respectively. I am not sure we are going to see too many shootouts from Paderborn, who have created a Bundesliga low 3 BC's (next lowest is six) but Schalke's games have averaged are 4.22 xG and 8 BC's, which is noteworthy and surely more goals to come in their games.

BMG have started very slowly and this is nothing new, across their last four seasons they are 1-4-11 for their first four games (16 total) and did not post a win until Matchday 9 last season. But their 0-0-4 record and 16 goals conceded is a new low. Head coach Eugen Polanski was dismissed after Matchday 3 and he was replaced by Alexander Blessin last week, who was in charge of St Pauli for the last two seasons. The Hamburg side finished 14th and then 18th (last) under him and across the two campaigns, their points total went down from 32 to 26 and goal difference from -13 to -31 and he won just 20.59% of games. He had some success in Belgium with two different clubs, but had a LOT of analytics help at one and I am not quite sure what he brings to BMG right now other than a lot of Bundesliga experience of relegation battles , ultimately unsuccessful. It doesn't exactly scream ambition from BMG.

Stuttgart will be disappointed to have only 3 points on board, but they have played three of last season's top 5, including the top 2 and posted big wins in the DFB Pokal and Champions League. XGD suggests they should have scored 2 and conceded 3 more and they do play a very open style. Their next three starts see them play Paderborn/Hamburg/ BMG and they will be looking for a good return from those, but, as I said in preseason, they did struggle with a CL/Bundesliga schedule in 2024/25 and I do think it is in Europe's premier competition that talented head coach Sebastian Hoeness wants to test himself and possibly why he is still at the club.

I highlighted what I considered to be big Frankfurt defensive issues in preseason and they have already conceded 10 goals and the only game in which they won xG, they lost 4-1. EF have given up 23 BC's ( 3.83 pg) in their last six Bundesliga starts. Maybe the extended break will help them, but these defensive problems seem deep rooted and have been with them a long time.

I was very negative about Werder Bremen in preseason and they will be delighted to have 7 points and 8 goals on board and Niclas Fullkrug who had a nightmare time at West Ham, took a salary cut to return to his former club on loan and has three goals. However, he was only available for 26 of 76 EPL games with the Hammers and started just 12, so let's see how he holds up in the coming weeks. Jens Stage has scored 10 in back to back seasons from CM, but never more than 5 at any club prior to that, he has lost his main midfield partner, Romano Schmid, who was sold in the summer and Stage is now injured and will be out until at least the new year. I still think that goals will be a big issue for Bremen, xGF puts them on 5 and they have trailed in three games ( all comps), by multiple goals in two and I feel we will see some levelling out in the coming weeks.

In preseason I wrote ....Elversberg are a tiny club, but are living the dream. They were playing 4th tier football in 2022, won Liga 3 the next season and have finished 11-3-2 in the last three seasons and are now in the Bundesliga for the first time in their history, so big success and a winning mentality. However, they have come a long way very quickly and that always seems to catch up with clubs eventually. They are immersed in the local community and their principal sponsors, Ursapharm, are the biggest employers in a tiny "village" and former professional footballer Frank Holzer is chairman of both the company and club. They have spent roughly 15m€ on transfers/loans/signing on fees mostly for young players from bigger clubs and kept everyone they wanted from last season. That all seems good business and that they are well run and not just here to make up the numbers and they could surprise a few teams and their tiny home stadium could make life uncomfortable for visitors.

What a start they made beating Leverkusen by the odd goal in five and BMG by the odd goal in seven! They then pushed Bayern close (1-2) and went into the break with a 0-0 draw away to Schalke. A fantastic start, but expected numbers suggest that they have overachieved on both sides of the ball and apart from their opener with Leverkusen, when they gave up 6 BC's, they have only led for about two minutes in games and opponents will have a lot more data on them now.

Union Berlin have conceded a Bundesliga high and an alarming 17 goals under a new head coach, who has never played or coached outside Switzerland previously. XGA says they should have "only " conceded 13 , but that is still a league worst number and with xP placing them bottom, it is hard to take too many positives from expected stats. Mauro Lustrinelli is their 7th head coach in three years and unless results improve very soon, number eight will be on his way. Union have given up 21 BC's, at least 4 in each start and six in each of their last two, also suffering their worst ever Bundesliga defeat in the most recent (0-7 v Bayern), a result they have had to live with for three weeks.

Leverkusen opened with a nightmare at newly promoted Elversberg where they were 3-0 down after 46 minutes , but they pulled two goals back and created 6 BC's in that ( 6-2) and come out second only to Bayern in all statistical categories across four games. However, their schedule has been reasonably kind so far and is tougher over the coming weeks when they will also be dealing with Thursday-Sunday games. I had a few issues with them coming into this campaign, but their head coach, who has little experience outside Catalonia has tightened them up defensively, or so it seems, but we will know more come the next international break.

RB Leipzig's lack of European football in 2025/26 was huge and helped them collect an additional 13 goals and 14 points, but they still sacked first season head coach Ole Werner at the end of the campaign (this was a decision apparently led by Jurgen Klopp) and replaced him with Martin Demichelis. He knows European football well enough, but the 45yo Argentine has no senior experience of the Bundesliga since he played for Bayern (2010) and none as a coach in European football. In the summer I said: "I have some real doubts about this appointment and RBL could again struggle with a league and European schedule. " They have beaten two weak teams at home by a combined 8-0, but have lost their three away games (one Champions League) by a combined 9-2. It is all relative as they almost always compete for top 4 spots, but they struggled in 24/25 (7th) when last in the CL and this season could play out similarly.

Bayern and Dortmund are very close to where they almost always are, both in terms of the actual and expected table and I do not have a lot to add, but will remind you of what I wrote in the summer and that is that Bayern have tended to struggle either side of Champions League games and a 0-0 draw with Schalke and 2-1 hard earned win over newly promoted Elversberg with a big CL Matchday 1 sandwiched in the middle, have done little to indicate that might change.

In preseason I wrote ....Hamburg were the other big club who came up last season along with Köln and, as I said at the time, "the Bundesliga needs these two almost as much as the reverse is true." The pair were the 5th and 7th best supported clubs with average attendances of 50,000+. HSV survived, but xGA suggests they should have conceded 12 more goals and xP placed them joint second bottom with relegated Heidenheim. Given their standing in German football, size of the club and how long it took to return to the Bundesliga ( seven seasons in the second tier, finishing top 4 in each!) I was surprised how little they spent last summer and again they have only spent, as I type, what they have brought in. They have not flashed the cash, as I felt they might. Head coach Merlin Polzin is only 35yo and remains at the club after closing in on two years and first promotion and then survival clearly filled the brief. He is tactically fluid, likes to get the ball wide and into dangerous areas as quickly as possible and is supposedly a magician (see what I did there!) with set pieces which Hamburg spend a lot of time on, but which they underperformed with last season, so some room for improvement there. However, more to concern than thrill ATM and I did not expect to be writing that ahead of a second top flight season for this club. It seems that they have made a profit for 5 straight seasons and look to be keeping a tight hold on the purse strings!

Hamburg lost their first three starts by a combined 12-0 (!) before beating Köln 2-1 ahead of the break , a result which was much needed and well timed, but their numbers were not much better in that win than the defeats, they have given up 18.5 attempts on goal per game and a long season awaits.

Köln have more goals in them for sure and are very good for betting purposes as both teams have scored in their last 15 competitive starts, they are 19 without a clean sheet and, in their last seven games they have conceded first and in the opening half in six, but also scored themselves from multiple goals down (2+) in three and do not easily give up. Nine goals conceded is right on the number, they should have scored three more and all things considered, they are ideal betting material both pre-match and in-play.

Hoffenheim are a team we like and traditionally, and long term, that has been on the road. In the summer I wrote ....Massive step up for Hoffenheim last season with a 36 goal and 29 point ( almost double) increase over 24/25. However, they tired over the closing weeks and collected "only" 16 points from their final 10 starts, they played only two domestic cup games and had no European football to deal with and the likelihood is that they will have to play an additional 10-15 fixtures. Now here's a biggie, this is just their 5th time in Europe, in the last two they had to play Thursday-Sunday, just like this season, and they finished 11th (20/21) and 15th (24/25) in the Bundesliga. They have signed a handful of young players with potential and balanced the books with the sale of Bazoumana Toure ( 5 goals and 15 assists in 45 league appearances) to Newcastle United. The losses of Promel ( see Stuttgart notes). Tabakovic and Nsoki robs them of experience in a very young group that is returning to Europe. XP gave them 54 points last season, which is the level they played at over the final 10 games, add in the sales and European football and it feels like mid table awaits.

They have struggled, especially defensively, but a few positives in that they have had the joint third most attempts on goal (76) and created the second most BC's (14) and we can still side with them occasionally if we can find the right games, which will rarely be at home and when they schedule is a little more forgiving.

Ahead of the international break I noted ....Augsburg appointed a "one season" head coach who took them into the top 10 and earned himself a two year extension, they spend what they receive and are a very well run club who continually punch above their weight. They have 7 points and 9 goals so far, scoring 2+ goals in all four competitive starts and in their last two trips to Bremen (both wins) and the hat-trick is firmly on. That played out well for us, less so for Augsburg as they scored the two goals we were looking for inside an hour, but then conceded three without reply. They do score and don't need many chances to do so, scoring 11 goals from just 56 attempts on goal and 7.2 xGF. 56 attempts is 11th best, 29 on target is 2nd and that conversion rate is unsustainable, but is worth remembering, as it will always give them a chance in almost any game and they were the only team to beat Bayern in Munich last season.

I think that leaves Freiburg and Mainz, both of whom I bigged up in the summer. It is very difficult not to admire Freiburg and how they are run. Posting four top 7 finishes in five seasons (10th in the other) and a Europa League final last season and we are talking about a relatively small club, with a budget to match. They have stepped up this season, look a far more confident side now and one full of goals (24 in 7 competitive starts) and I am not worried about the Thursday-Sunday games, as they are used to that after doing so almost weekly last season and they are in the weaker competition (Europa Conference) this time around. They have a very similar recruitment policy to Brentford, or how the Bees used to operate and are very good at identifying young talent who didn't quite make it at bigger clubs, but had the grounding of elite academies and Brentford and Freiburg were and are, able and willing to give these players time to develop, which clubs where success has to be immediate, are not. I am very happy with our bets on Freiburg where we already have huge value.

Mainz have scored 9 goals in winning both away starts, but have taken just one point and one goal from two as host and I have to be honest and say that is a concern, as they only won 4 as host last season and 5 wins in 26 Bundesliga home starts is not good enough to claim top 6 . They might easily have taken 3-4 points from those two home games and did enough statistically to have done so, but this needs to be addressed and with two of their next three home starts coming against Leverkusen and Bayern, they are going to be tested. They are "good" for those 10 goals scored, which is right on their expected number and they come in at T3rd for BC's created. I think that I will only be backing them on the road, until they prove that they are over those home ground blues.

Good luck!